Serbia’s foreign policy is characterized by balancing between three major powers – the European Union, Russia and China. Russia has secured long-term strategic and political influence through the purchase of the Serbian Oil Industry (NIS) in 2008 and the construction of the “Balkan Stream” gas pipeline in 2021, making Serbia dependent on Russian gas and oil. This dependence provides Moscow with a powerful tool for exerting pressure, while at the same time exposing Serbia to the risks of sanctions and threatening its energy independence. China is focusing on massive infrastructure and mining projects, such as RTB Bor, Smederevo Iron and Steel Works, and Kostolac B3 thermal power plant, through direct investments and loans. Chinese capital provides Serbia with economic benefits in exchange for control over resources, but the processes are often non-transparent and at odds with European standards, especially in the context of decarbonization. On the other hand European Union is investing in renewable energy, energy efficiency, green transition and supporting decarbonization by 2050, but under the condition of fulfilling environmental and energy standards, which are part of the Serbia's commitments on its path to EU membership. At the same time, Serbia benefits from both the East and the West to gain internal legitimacy and economic growth, while remaining exposed to long-term risks: energy dependence, growing public debt, environmental imbalances and reduced export competitiveness due to new EU taxes (CBAM). The current strategy allows for short-term gains, but is neither economically nor environmentally sustainable. The path to green transformation and alignment with EU standards remains crucial for Serbia's long-term stability and European perspective.
The article by Filip Mirilović was originaly published with the support of the project Enhancing the Capacities of Serbian Independent Media in Informing about the Green Transition Challenges by Vreme.
