Reading the Map: Actors, Motives, and Trajectories in Czech Foreign Policy

The return of the ANO movement to government at the end of 2025 –this time in coalition with Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) and Motorists for Themselves – raised a number of questions among Czechia’s international partners and allies. Concerns centered primarily on the country’s future stance on Ukraine, its role in the European Union, and the fulfillment of its NATO commitments. Although the new government declared a sharp break with the policies of the previous cabinet, reality presents a more nuanced picture. The first year in office reveals a blend of substantive and rhetorical shifts alongside continuity with the preceding period.

Vít Dostál, Pavlína Janebová, Martin Borecký | 7. 10. 2026

Reading the Map: Actors, Motives, and Trajectories in Czech Foreign Policy

This policy brief uncovers the underlying motivations of key political actors and the dynamics shaping their relationships. It outlines how the differing priorities of the governing parties, the President, the parliamentary opposition, as well as the private sector and civil service intersect. The second part focuses on the outlook for the future: identifying areas where a stable course in Czech foreign policy can be expected, while highlighting issues whose development remains uncertain in today’s dynamic environment and warrants closer attention.

Key Findings

Continuity with the previous government’s positions is to be expected regarding EU and NATO membership in general and continued support for Israel.
A clear change of direction which is expected to last for the entire government term is in the lukewarm approach to supporting Ukraine, a more short-term transactional and economically oriented approach, and a persistent multi-track foreign policy.
Areas in which further developments remain uncertain are the Czech future position within the EU and the relationship with the European institutions, defence spending, and the substantive importance of Visegrád cooperation.
The Czech Republic’s standing in the EU faces potential destabilization should the government come into conflict with EU institutions over rule-of-law issues.
Escalating conflicts of interest and disputes over EU subsidies linked to Babiš could push him toward political isolation, though Babiš is unlikely to become an ideological leader of the Patriots for Europe-aligned stream.
Although discussions on NATO membership remain off the table, the coalition parties actively hedge on higher defence spending. This strategy could be disrupted by stronger allied pressure or political marginalisation if allies eventually write Prague off. Most significantly, a shift could be driven from within by an increased perception of the Russian threat among the domestic public.
Although the Babiš government prioritizes revitalizing Visegrád cooperation – finding strong common ground with V4 partners on the EU budget, cohesion funds, industrial policies, and migration – this regional renaissance faces significant structural vulnerabilities.
President Pavel remains an independent foreign-policy actor, particularly on Ukraine and defence; the parliamentary opposition pursues alternative positions to the government, while remaining weak and largely reactive. Business and the professional state apparatus act as constraints and sources of continuity.