By the end of 2025, Serbia is facing energy problems caused by long-term political irresponsibility, a lack of strategic planning, and a systematic avoidance of difficult decisions. The country is facing three connected energy crises: US sanctions against the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS) due to its Russian ownership, uncertainty about future gas supplies, and weakening position of the power company Elektroprivreda Srbije (EPS).
Sanctions against NIS threaten oil supply chains, refinery operations, financial stability, and employment of more than 13,000 people. At the same time, Serbia lacks a long-term gas agreement and credible alternatives to Russian gas. The media and institutions have been silent until the situation escalated, allowing the risks to accumulate unnoticed. The third major challenge is the implementation of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which will introduce carbon-based import charges from 2026. Products such as cement, steel, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen will become less competitive due to high emissions. Electricity poses the most immediate threat: with more than 60 percent of Serbia’s energy coming from coal, CBAM could cost EPS hundreds of millions of euros annually, risking higher electricity prices and export losses.
These crises reveal that Serbia has not prepared for the green transition. While other countries have adapted gradually, Serbia has maintained a system dependent on coal, politically weakened institutions, and pushed its energy sector into a corner. The result is an economy that is vulnerable in oil, gas and electricity – unprepared and facing long-awaited consequences.
The article by Danilo Marković was originaly published with the support of the project Enhancing the Capacities of Serbian Independent Media in Informing about the Green Transition Challenges by Vreme.
