The paper further analyzes the consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine for Russia’s internal stability, its influence in Europe, and its global standing. Domestically, the war has weakened the stability and cohesion of the Russian elite, while the Kremlin has sacrificed long-term prosperity in favor of the war effort. Despite maintaining covert influence in Europe, Russia has lost significant trade and energy ties, undermining its leverage over European countries. On the global stage, Russia promotes a post-Western multipolar world order but faces newly emerging dependencies on powers beyond its control, particularly China and India. According to the authors, Europe should focus on steps and measures aimed at contributing to the creation of a “polycrisis” that would force Russia to turn inward and weaken its capacity for aggressive foreign policy. Key recommendations also include measures designed to further divide the Russian elite.
