While it is true that China has served as a crucial economic support for Russia during thewar in Ukraine, it has not fully compensated for the decline in Russian export revenue from the EU. Beijing has supplied Moscow with dual-use goods and technology but there has been no direct provision of lethal military equipment from China to Russia, as the Chinese government and businesses are wary of triggering Western secondary sanctions and losing access to the European market.

Thus, It is unlikely that the Chinese government and defense companies will substantially support Russia with heavy weaponry and ammunition in its ongoing conflict against Ukraine. One reason for China holding back is the nuanced and cautious attitude of its foreign policy elites on Russia’s war.

This month’s guest

• Dr Thomas Eder, Visiting Fellow at China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe (CHOICE), Post-Doc Researcher at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs (oiip).